(CNN)
Al Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb, often seen as a fractured and undisciplined group, apparently has
carried out its second major terror attack in two months -- claiming more than
20 lives in the assault on a luxury hotel and two other targets in Ouagadougou,
the capital of Burkina Faso.
The
gun attack on the Splendid Hotel bears many
similarities to that on
the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali, on November 20 in which 22 people were
killed.
Both
targets were popular with Westerners and international (especially U.N).
officials; they were "soft," rather than military installations or
police stations. The attackers (two in Bamako, possibly four in Ouagadougou)
were armed with automatic weapons, their aim to kill and then take as many
hostages as possible.
And
both operations apparently were carried out by an AQIM group called Al
Mourabitoun.
The
group's statement after the latest attack claimed the Splendid Hotel was
"frequented by staff of the nations of global disbelief;" the attack
was "to punish the cross-worshippers for their crimes against our people
in Central Africa, Mali, and other lands of the Muslims."
A very similar statement followed the Bamako attack, which was
revenge for the "assaults of the Crusaders on our people, our sanctities,
and our mujahideen brothers in Mali."
But while Mali has seen dozens of terror attacks by AQIM over
the years, this is the first time the group apparently has extended its
operations to neighboring Burkina Faso.
In
a region already reeling from terrorist violence and racked by instability,
it's an ominous portent of AQIM's rejuvenated ambition. As intelligence
analysts Flashpoint Partners write: "This is the first claim of credit by
a major al Qaeda branch for an attack in Burkina Faso, which indicates an
alarming growth in the group's transnational reach."
Another
sign of AQIM's renewed vigor was its audio statement this week urging Muslims
to expel Spain from its two enclaves in North Africa -- Ceuta and Melilla --
and to attack foreign occupiers in Libya.
"The
Italians and Romans have occupied the land once again, and most important after
faith is pushing them away, deterring them, and expelling them from our
lands," says the head of AQIM's "Council of Dignitaries," Abu
Obeida Yusuf al-'Annabi, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence
Group.
AQIM
is recovering from a sequence of divisions and defeats in recent years. After
various AQIM affiliates swept across northern Mali in 2012, seizing nearly half
the country, intervention by the French and several African militaries pushed
them out of cities such as Timbuktu and Gao and back into remote desert
regions.
But
the vast Sahel desert and its mountain ranges were (and are) a refuge for AQIM
commanders like Mokhtar Belmoktar, the most infamous and dangerous of AQIM
leaders. Belmoktar is leader of Al Mourabitoun, which carried out another
deadly hotel attack in the Malian town of Sevare last
August in addition to
the Bamako and Ouagadougou attacks.
Demotion
didn't stop his activities
The one-eyed
Belmoktar has been declared dead many times, most recently by Libyan officials
after a U.S. airstrike in eastern Libya last summer, but has defied the odds.
It's been 12 years since he was designated as a global terrorist by the United
States, with a $5 million reward on
offer for information about him.
Belmoktar
has survived because of the vast distances and empty landscapes of the Sahel:
the rugged Algerian-Malian border is as long as the distance from New York to
Chicago. With the French military intervention in Mali, he is thought to have
moved farther east -- to the triangle where Algeria, Niger and Libya meet.
Originally
from southern Algeria, Belmoktar knows the Sahel like a smuggler, which is what
he was. He became known as Mr. Marlboro for his prowess in smuggling everything
from cigarettes to drugs and migrants through the empty and unforgiving
landscapes. He is also thought to have raised tens of millions of dollars
through ransoms for Westerners kidnapped in Mali and Niger, some of which has
been spent in the weapons bazaars of Libya.
His
activities were too much for Abdelmalik Droukdel, the overall leader of AQIM,
who is said to have demoted Belmokhtar in 2012 from his position as "'Emir
of the Sahel." Citing regional security officials, Agence France Presse
reported at the time that Belmokhtar had been dismissed for "continued
divisive activities, despite several warnings."
Undaunted,
Belmoktar announced the formation of an elite unit called "Those Who Sign
With Blood," which would be the shield against the "invading
enemy" -- meaning France. "This is a promise from us that we will
fight you in the midst of your countries and we will attack your
interests," he said in a message released late in 2012.
And
in January 2013, his fighters launched an attack on a gas plant at In Amenas in
southern Algeria. A
three-day siege left
nearly 40 foreign workers dead.
Belmoktar's
fighters have since attacked a military academy and French uranium mine in
Niger. Some intelligence sources also connected Belmoktar to the attack on the
U.S. diplomatic compound and annex in Benghazi in September 2012, in which
Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were killed.
Exploiting
a void of security
The Bamako attack in
November marked Belmoktar's homecoming to AQIM after three years of
estrangement. Droukdel announced it had been a joint operation and declared the
integration of the two groups.
Only
last week, Jemal Oukacha -- leader of the Sahara branch of AQIM -- said he had
formed a Shura Council with Al Mourabitoun to develop a "unified
strategy" focusing on targeting "Crusaders" inside and outside
Mali, and the French in particular.
AQIM
operates in a region where state authority is frequently weak, intelligence
resources limited and security forces often ineffective. Burkina Faso recently
experienced an attempted military coup. It is not difficult for groups such as
Al Mourabitoun with its resources to infiltrate a squad into a city like
Ouagadougou or cross long thinly-populated borders such as the one dividing
Mali and Burkina Faso.
AQIM
-- and Belmoktar -- matter to al Qaeda as a bulwark of support in an area where
the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has ambitions, and new affiliates.
ISIS has three wilayat or provinces in Libya, budding support bases in Algeria
and Tunisia and the nominal allegiance of Boko Haram in northern Nigeria. One
faction within AQIM also opted for ISIS, but not Belmoktar.
"We
confirm our commitment and loyalty to the pledge of allegiance to [al Qaeda
leader] Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri," his group announced in May last year.
Oukacha -- the leader of AQIM in the Sahara -- also emphatically rejected the
"Caliphate" last week.
After
a dramatic downturn in the group's activities in 2014, a rejuvenated AQIM is
demonstrating its expanded reach. Bad news for the West and for weak African
states -- but not great news for ISIS, either.